WX
WXModels

Every model.
Every run.

A model workspace built the way forecasters work: every major model and ensemble, fetched the moment each forecast hour is published, on one map you can flip, compare, subtract and scrub. Then a scorecard that checks them all against what actually happened.

13 models and ensembles64 kinds of mapSingle · Compare · Trend · DiffScored against real stations
The Models workspace on a desktop Illustration
The lineup

From the hourly 3 km HRRR to the 51-member ensembles.

Models
HRRRNOAA3 km · every hour
RRFSNOAA3 km · 4× a day
GFSNOAA0.25° · 4× a day
ECMWF IFS©ECMWF0.25° · 4× a day
AIFS©ECMWF · AI model0.25° · 4× a day
GEMEnvironment Canadaglobal · 2× a day
ICONDeutscher Wetterdienstglobal · 2× a day
NBMNWS blend2.5 km · 4× a day · Storm Desk
Ensembles
GEFSNOAA · 31 members4× a day
EPS©ECMWF · 51 members2× a day
AIFS ENS©ECMWF · AI · 51 members4× a day
REFSNOAA · 3 km4× a day
GEPSEnvironment Canada · 21 members2× a day

© marks ECMWF data, used under CC BY 4.0. The NBM feeds the Storm Desk and has no maps of its own.

Four ways to look

Flip, compare, subtract.

SingleOne model, one map, the whole run on the timeline. Step an hour with the arrow keys, a day with Shift.
CompareTwo or four models side by side, panned, zoomed and stepped together.
TrendOne valid time, scrubbed back through the runs that forecast it: is it getting wetter?
DiffThis run minus the last one, or one model minus another, in red and blue.
← → step an hour⇧ ← → a daySpace play[ ] previous / next run\ hide the panels
Four models' snow forecasts for the same storm, side by side: HRRR, GFS, ECMWF IFS and ICON each put the heaviest band in a slightly different place, so your place gets between6 and 10 inches. Illustration.
Compare · snow total, Kuchera ratio Illustration
HRRR18z · through Wed 12z
GFS18z · through Wed 12z
ECMWF IFS12z · through Wed 12z
© ECMWF, CC BY 4.0
ICON12z · through Wed 12z
The maps

64 kinds of map, sharp at any zoom.

The server sends the values, not pictures, and your browser colors them. So the map stays sharp as you zoom, the number under your cursor is the real value, and the hours blend smoothly as you scrub. Every model uses the same colors for the same amount, so they compare at a glance.

Map groups
PrecipitationSurfaceWinterWindSevereUpper airEnsembles

Precipitation type, snow by the Kuchera ratio, freezing rain and sleet, chances of 1, 3, 6 and 12 inches, gusts, CAPE, the jet and more. A model that can't draw a map says so.

Overlays, on any map
  • Isobars with highs and lows
  • 500 mb heights
  • The 540 dam thickness line
  • 0 °C at 850 mb
  • Wind barbs
Ensembles

Not one answer: the odds.

An ensemble runs the same model dozens of times from slightly different starting conditions. WX turns that into chances of the amounts that matter, every member side by side, low tracks drawn together, and each member's running total at your place.

Chance of 6″ or more Illustration
85%
Every member, side by side Illustration
Each member's storm total, in the same colors as the model maps.
Snow at your place, member by member Illustration
0″3″6″9″12″15″+0h+12h+24h+36h
Gold: the median, 8.4″. Dashed: 6″, reached by 17 of 20 members.

EPS and AIFS ensemble data © ECMWF, CC BY 4.0.

Tools

Look into the map.

SoundingLong-press anywhere for a Skew-T: instant at your places, fetched on demand elsewhere.
Ruler and areaMeasure a distance, or draw an area and get its numbers.
What changedA map of how the newest run differs from the last, ready before you ask.
ExportSave a map as a picture, or a loop as an animation, to share.
Sounding · your place · Thu 03z Illustration
1000850700500300-40°-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°
Snow-growth zone−12 to −18 °C, saturated
0 °C
Warm nose +3.6 °Csnow melts here
Shallow cold layertoo thin to refreeze
━ temperature━ dew point┅ 0 °C
The scorecard

Scored every day.

Every run's forecast for nearby stations is saved, then checked against what those stations report: highs, lows, rain and gusts, scored by lead time.

Once a model has a month of scores, the blend weights it by recent skill, so the better performers count for more.

High temperature error, last 30 days Illustration
Your blend2.1°
ECMWF IFS2.4°
NBM2.6°
HRRR2.9°
GFS3.3°
GEM3.6°

Average miss in °F. ECMWF IFS data © ECMWF, CC BY 4.0.

Data on this page: © ECMWF (IFS, AIFS, the EPS and AIFS ensembles, CC BY 4.0); NOAA (HRRR, RRFS, GFS, GEFS, REFS, the National Blend of Models); Environment and Climate Change Canada (GEM, GEPS); Deutscher Wetterdienst (ICON). Scorecard observations: NWS METARs. Pictures are illustrations: the storm, places and numbers are made up.

More of WX

Keep exploring.

NowLive mode while a storm is on: what's falling at your place, how hard, the next three hours.Open the page →Storm DeskStorms found days out and watched as each new run comes in: scenarios, chances and a cited briefing.Open the page →LearnIn the works: a meteorology course taught on the weather where you are.Open the page →The whole storyRadar, soundings, the scorecard and how it's built, on one page.Back to the home page →